Pang Chong

Welcome!

I am a research master student in Economics at the University of Hong Kong. Before starting my study at HKU, I obtained my Bachelor's degree in Public Finance from Xiamen University. I'm applying for Economics Ph.D. this year.

My research interest lies in Economic History, Labour Economics and Political Economy.

Contact: pcecon@connect.hku.hk

Research

Asymmetric Fertility Elasticities, with Anson Zhou and Sam Engle, click here for slides

Presentation at: The 12th Shanghai Macroeconomics Workshop; The 2024 HKU Macroeconomics Workshop; The 50th Xiangzhang Seminar in Economics; 2024 Asian Summer School in Econometrics and Statistics; 2025 AEA Annual Meeting (Scheduled)

Abstract: The last five decades witnessed a remarkable reversal where many countries around the world shifted from suppressing to maintaining or promoting childbirth. This paper utilizes historical data from this episode to provide systematic evidence suggesting that the effectiveness of pro-fertility policies is smaller than the anti-fertility ones, weighing against standard models with smooth fertility demand. To explain this fact, we develop a behavioral theory of fertility choice featuring a simple intuition: due to the trade-off between fertility and consumption, households with loss aversion over the current living standard are more reluctant to increase fertility than to reduce it upon symmetric changes in the shadow price of children. Lastly, we embed asymmetric fertility elasticities into a dynamic model where the social planner minimizes the costs associated with fertility that is either too high or too low. We show that with asymmetric elasticities, fertility levels possess positional values that should be taken into account in policy evaluations.

The Social Outcome of Negative Monetary Shock, with Chen Ting and Li Jianan, Draft Coming Soon, click here for slides

Presentation at: The 2024 Zhejiang University Historical Political Economy Workshop; The 10th Quantitative History Summer School

Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on the non-economic costs of negative monetary shocks. We examine the disruption of China’s silver supply during the Latin American Revolution as an exogenous source of decrease in money supply and exploit China’s unique currency allocation system to construct a cross-sectional exposure to the monetary shock. Using an original conflict dataset covering 1,549 counties from 1801 to 1840, we demonstrate that the negative monetary shock leads to a significant increase in the frequency of social unrest. We also highlight four channels through which this effect occurs: economic depression due to higher financing costs, rising living costs caused by a decrease in cross-regional trade, increased tax burdens resulting from rigidity in nominal tax rates, and intensifying inequality between different social classes. Our findings offer a new perspective on the benefits and costs of contractionary monetary policy. 

Ideological Mobilization and Erosion of Social Capital: Evidence from China’s Send-down Movement, with Yang Guoyong

Abstract: Ideological mobilization uses ideological and altruistic propaganda to push individuals to sacrifice for the ruling party's agenda. What is the long-run effect of ideological mobilization on social capital? In this study, we take the Send-down Movement in 1970s China as a background, in which the Chinese government used ideological mobilization to force urban middle school graduates to rural areas far from their homes. We construct a novel measurement of the movement exposure intensity, and match respondents in the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey to the exposure intensity. We then provide empirical evidence that the movement leads to a decline in social capital and altruism. This study contributes to the literature on (1) long-term effects of historical events; (2) the formation and erosion of social capital; (3) the benefit and cost of the Send-down Movement. 

From Barracks to the Streets: The Effects of Military Demobilization on Crime Dynamics in China, with Li Yuanchao and Zheng Yifan